Hey guys, welcome to the wknd. Last wk, WOW!, wasnt the "wk of wks" but certainly a good start. A few observations as I'm sucking down my coffee.
E: All kinds of tech damage last wk. Had been calling for a bounce in the room most of the wk & when did it come, Friday afternoon when I was on my tractor(go figure). Obviously e looks lower(hopefully much lower) but the mkt is very VERY short. http://www.efxnews.com/story/12659/speculators-bet-eurs-fall-hit-near-record-high-cftc
Going into next wk, I like more back filling to as high as 12999 but not good news coming out of Spain so we'll have to see how this plays out.
I've seen this movie before, "the news is so bad, why isn't the mkt falling hard". Well big brother(cbanks) is watching very closely and the last thing they want is to lose control. Yens(wow), just when BOJ thinks they've broken the shorts the party starts all over again. Be very nimble w/ your yen shorts going forward cause we're hitting key fib levels & intervention would not shock me.
SP: 1250? 1200? 1180?, FB ipo a real slap in the face of equities last wk. We hold here(to alittle lower) & the Fed cooks up some stealth intervention or lights out next wk. Remember, sp has yet to go red on the yr(very rarely will a mkt not go red at some pt during the course of a 1 yr bar) so based on Friday's close, its coming.
QE: Banks love QE, its free money(if memory serves me, Wall St. was bringing in 50m commission a day last fall on QE2) so to get their wish they need to get the mkts down to Uncle Ben's pain level. I think that level is 100 pts lower min. or a break 1200. Maybe break 1200 gets the QE talk juices really going and SP 1125-00 has the world screaming "give us our meds now or else!"
Back to SP: We've got a trend forming, SP gaps higher pre-mkt only to fall out of bed into the close(happened 4, maybe 5 days last wk, need to check my charts for last Monday?). Hence, be thinking eod puts next wk. Be looking for a 1hr red bar closing on lows & out of pre-mkt gap ranges.
Volatilitys back, I've been seeing strings of red/greens 15m, 30, 1hrs everyday(5-6s in a row, NICE). Great conditions for binary traders so watch your MM, be selective, next set-up just around the corner, & I bet you guys really clean up before going into nice relaxing summer mode.