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my hot post Forums Author Topic: NFP day
rustyh6281
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: June 1, 2012, 05:54
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Hi everyone ...
I would be interested to see how people traded NFP if they did today AFTER the event...
If you are willing, would you post something up here?

I was looking at FPA for advice ... so could be interesting!
Anyway .. would like your thoughts / ideas on trading it after .. and if they worked!
Good luck

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ray
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: June 1, 2012, 09:18
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I really blew it with this trade today. I waited until just before the announcement to get into my positions. Unfortunately, because of "Options Price Changed", I was only able to establish one of the positions which is definitely NOT what I wanted. I had an "Above" established. But, I couldn't get into a "Below". Lesson for next time is try to get into the positions around 6 to 7 minutes early to make sure there is sufficient time to establish them both. The jobs number was absolutely awful. This was USD-negative news. If you got into both positions unlike me, the trade was successful for you.

That said, after the botched trade, I tried to limit the damage which I was able to do with a GBP/USD touch up on the fundamentally USD-negative data and a 60-second Low on GBP/USD when the USD/JPY started to strengthen.

Check out this wild action in USD/JPY in the minutes following the event. Amazing:

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And here's my trades from this morning.

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rustyh6281
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: June 1, 2012, 09:48
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Thanks Ray ... So you used a touch options to trade with? Is that the best idea, i assume you are betting that the price will touch the figure 24O quote because of the wild movement with the results?
What time frame do you use for the trade? I havent used them before!

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ray
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: June 1, 2012, 09:58
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Hi Rusty...The only trade I recommend is the Above/Below.

The Touch trade was based on the fundamentally USD-negative news. USD was supposed to weaken after the data release. That means you expect other currencies like GBP and EUR to rise versus USD. The Touch Up was just based on that expectation.
tommbstone
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: June 2, 2012, 01:54
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They had touch options this time? Last time they pulled them off.

Very cool and darn I missed it. oh well
rustyh6281
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: June 2, 2012, 07:56
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Hi all ... i traded the down trend then the bounce off the 61.8 Fib ... Two wins!

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Looking back ... it looked like a 'classic' fib here ...

0 - 100 plotted ...100% retrace (waitied for two bars) and traded
bounce off the 61.8% (which i traded)

Dropped down to the 55% (ish) and bounced again! and on up ...

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ray
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: June 2, 2012, 09:53
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Quote from tommbstone on June 2, 2012, 01:54
They had touch options this time? Last time they pulled them off.

Very cool and darn I missed it. oh well

There weren't any high-yield touches. Notice the payout on the touch trade I made. Lousy 60 percent. The real action was on Above/Below.
Pete
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: June 2, 2012, 10:24
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Good point by Cherry Coke ......... I agree with her.

Don't openly display strategy ideas here for NFP.
24Option monitors this site and they already pulled the high yield touches from us for NFP. Don't give them any more ammo.

I think its ok to ask questions openly and then share trading strategies via private message.

Just my 2 cents

- Pete
rustyh6281
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: July 6, 2012, 06:57
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Hello all ... PETE / CHERRY
i note your points not to talk about NFP here ... but FPA has already posted their ideas on trading ... FPA is big ... so i don't see a problem with a re-post, as the info is already out there!

---
Load the 5 Min USDOLLAR Chart Available on FXCM demo account
Plot 21 SMA

Curfew Time: 8:30 to 9:00 AM (I.e. No Trade between that time)

after 9:00 AM Trade the 21 SMA and price crossover on the USDOLLAR CHART, you could trade the crossover on the GBPUSD
So If we have USDOLLAR index Cross over its 21 SMA from the below, i.e. Close above the 21 SMA after 9:00 AM then You are Buying the USDOLLARS so sell the GBPUSD

Stop Below the Low/High
Target 1:1 and 1:2

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ray
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xx Forums Re: NFP day
on: July 6, 2012, 10:07
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Well, it looks like 24O has shut down the no-brainer way to make a quick 100+ percent return on NFP day. I guess that is the ultimate validation of the strategy. The last few NFP days we could get into a trade before the release of the report in the Above/Below on USD/JPY expiring 15 mins after the report. Today, we couldn't. My guess is that it won't be available again.
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